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December 07, 2005

Osama a no-show in latest video

This entry was posted in the following categories: Political

There's a new video out from Hollywood these days. Oops. I think it's from Al Qaida. Sorry, I get them confused. Conspicuous in his absence, however, is Osama Bin Laden himself. The video features Zawahri.

It's the usual enemy propoganda, the kind of stuff you'd expect from Al Qaida and the DNC. One thing I found fascinating, was when he said:

The (Iraqi) government is begging Americans not to leave because they know the day Americans leave is the day they are finished.

Now, I know they're not above reverse psychology. I remember how before weinvaded Iraq, Osama tried to convince us that Saddam Hussen was an infidel and that Al Qaida wouldn't have anything to do with him. Yeah. Right. That statement alone convinced me of the closeness of their relationship.

So I got to wondering, is he trying reverse psychology here? Does he want Americans to stay in Iraq? Is Iraq a boomtown (absolutely no pun intended!) for Al Qaida recruitment? In their more coherent moments, that's an argument made by those in the left. And in fact, they may be right about that. But the terrorists were, despite what they said, buddies with Saddam Hussein, and we promised we would not allow any countries to grant them safe haven.

What's Al Qaida's best interests in Iraq? On the one aforementioned hand, our occupation in Iraq does offer them recruiting abilities. But they would be much better off if (1) we surrendered and quit (which would be a far-better recruiting boost for them in itself) and (2) a terrorist-friendly government (either Saddam or the Taliban) was installed. So are they trying to keep us there? I really don't think so. No reverse psychology here. They're focus here is on recruitment. They want to convince Arabs that if they go blow themselves up in Iraq, they may be the straw that breaks the American back.

The problem for Al Qaida is, they're running out of targets. Sure, there's plenty in Iraq, but I think the Jordan wedding bombing showed how desperate they're getting. They need attacks not only for their overall aim, but as a recruitment tool ("this could be you! Join now, and you too can blow up infidels!"). With America virtually off-limits, and most of the rest of the world the same, all that's left for them to blow up are other Arabs. And once that happens, they start losing their core support.

I think I see now how victory in the war on terrorism will come about. Step 1, remove any safe havens (like Afghanistan and Iraq) for terrorists. Step 2, remove non-Arab targets. Step 3, Al Qaida shoots themselves in the foot. Step 4, they run out of dumb young men willing to blow themselves up. We're seeing that start to come about now. They're running out of targets, and without targets, they can't recruit more terrorists.

And what of Osama? I suspect that either (a) he's already dead (maybe died in the earthquake as some rumored) or (b) we know where he is, but there's better intel to be had by letting him live and watching him than by capturing or killing him. Besides, if Al Qaida is strong when he dies, someone else (we know less about) will take his place. Or maybe that someone else (Zawahri) already has?

I guess we'll find out one of these days.


Posted by mlv at December 7, 2005 02:30 AM

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